Thanks for this really interesting and informative take on how the various entities (BWs, Orcas, GWs, etc) drive BTC price. I’ve heard claims that BTC’s price volatility will decrease through time as BTC network adoption grows and is stabilized by the big money that will be brought in by institutional players. This hypothesis makes perfect sense to me; however, it seems that in these early days of institutional adoption, the institutions are noncommittal and their somewhat frequent entry and exit from the network may actually be creating more pronounced price volatility than we’ve seen in past cycles. Admittedly, I make this statement with the assumption that the recent -50% pullback in price is a 2013 style mid-cycle correction. However, if the ~$65K price in May was the ATH for this cycle, then perhaps we’re not witnessing more pronounced volatility, but just the typical capitulation that follows an end-of-cycle peak? I guess we’ll find out in the coming months!
Thanks for the compliment, and I pretty much agree with everything you've wrote - volatility will eventually decrease, but later; institutional adoption has begun but will have fits and starts, so volatility will continue for quite some time; and yes, it would seem we'll have a second bull phase of this halving cycle, but we'll know for sure in due time!
Thanks for this really interesting and informative take on how the various entities (BWs, Orcas, GWs, etc) drive BTC price. I’ve heard claims that BTC’s price volatility will decrease through time as BTC network adoption grows and is stabilized by the big money that will be brought in by institutional players. This hypothesis makes perfect sense to me; however, it seems that in these early days of institutional adoption, the institutions are noncommittal and their somewhat frequent entry and exit from the network may actually be creating more pronounced price volatility than we’ve seen in past cycles. Admittedly, I make this statement with the assumption that the recent -50% pullback in price is a 2013 style mid-cycle correction. However, if the ~$65K price in May was the ATH for this cycle, then perhaps we’re not witnessing more pronounced volatility, but just the typical capitulation that follows an end-of-cycle peak? I guess we’ll find out in the coming months!
Thanks for the compliment, and I pretty much agree with everything you've wrote - volatility will eventually decrease, but later; institutional adoption has begun but will have fits and starts, so volatility will continue for quite some time; and yes, it would seem we'll have a second bull phase of this halving cycle, but we'll know for sure in due time!